From a telematics company infoletter:
Will 2G disappear completely?
No. Several carriers have made commitments to support 2G spectrum, largely to support the millions of M2M connected devices. Because of the low bandwidth requirements of most M2M applications, even a small sliver of spectrum can support hundreds of millions of M2M devices. Sprint is pursuing the opportunity seemingly vacated by AT&T, and has indicated they intend to maintain a 2G network for the long term – at least through 2020. T-Mobile, while it is dedicating a large portion of its spectrum to 4G, has also committed to keeping a significant portion of spectrum devoted to 2G to serve its M2M customers long term. Verizon has said it will turn down their 2G and 3G networks by 2021.
Who Will Be Most Affected?
The transition to 4G is great for companies requiring high speed and quality connections like video or advertising, but it has enormous cost implications in the M2M industry. M2M applications with low data transfer rates don’t require a lot of bandwidth; they may never need the speed of 4G. Furthermore, the cost structure of many M2M applications and devices cannot support the cost of upgrading. Companies with devices utilizing one of the 2G networks that are scheduled to be decommissioned will be stranded when those networks are shut down unless they find cost-effective replacement solutions or upgrade their devices.
Why is it a big deal?
Analysys Mason recently forecast that the number of M2M device connections will grow from 200 million 2013, to 2.2 billion devices in 2023. Of this massive number of connected M2M devices, more than 90 percent are on older 2G networks. AT&T has the largest 2G GSM network in the nation with over 15 million connected devices. Their decision to decommission 2G, along with the shuttered networks of other carriers in the next 10 years could potentially require companies to replace an estimated 10 to 12 million 2G GPRS devices at a cost of several billion dollars to the M2M industry over the next couple years.
What Are My Options?
Companies attempting to navigate the changes of the 2G sunset will be glad to know there are options to transition in a cost effective way. In the long run, most companies will eventually be forced to deploy new devices. Here are some options:
• Stay on 2G GSM using another carrier for new activations – Some companies have continued commitment to 2G.
As a global option, Telefonica, EE and Rogers will have 2G up and running for the distant future. This option would require a SIM swap, which is likely the most inexpensive option.
• Upgrade devices to 3G GSM - While a jump to 3G may just delay an eventual jump to an LTE product, 3G is a practical and very viable alternative to 2G. Particularly if the devices come in for periodic service or have an in-field service range of under 10 years.
• LTE is quickly becoming the option of choice. While module costs are still a bit more, they are quickly declining with the release of new products.
So just stop supporting AT&T.