Over/Under on when we'll be required to have pilot licenses...

[Adam Kontras]

...because with enough of these in the air? One will come down and kill someone and then the regulations will come... matter of time at this point. It will be sweeping and fast and as long as the hobbyists push for licenses that will at least save the responsible ones. Otherwise I can see them banning ALL drones.

 

[bbfpv]

Generally an over/under requires a starting point in which to pick over, or under. Since you're the op I believe it's yours to make.

 

[EnronCEO]

There will not be a ban of drones, banning drones is like banning the first cars that came out of the ford factory. LOL
Like I said in another post.

"The truth is I predict the government is going to implement no fly zone with "AES" airspace control. AES (auto electric shutoff). You will probably get a 1 mile to 500 feet warning if you are flying to close to any government, national landmarks, airports or any other types of government owned land. Implementing a license to fly would put many drone companies out of business and loss in general tax revenues so I am sure this will not happen. You will see a growth in the masses with drone sales skyrocketing, there will be a huge demand for ADS (Avoidance Detection Systems) which will become standard and mandatory in the future."

 

[Kman]

If you can walk into a Wal-Mart and buy a firearm without a license - I'm doubtful we will be required to get a license to fly an rc aircraft. I'm probably wrong though.

 

[Apparition]

If you can walk into a Wal-Mart and buy a firearm without a license.

 

[gfredrone]

I'm mainly taking about commercial for the license.

 

[Adam Kontras]

Nothing says that I can't fly my drone over a highway. These absolutely malfunction and fall from the sky. Should their not be some regulations on what is beneath you while you're flying? Granted, actual helicopters can avoid those regulations, but you have to have a license to fly them...

 

[AAA]

If you can walk into a Wal-Mart and buy a firearm without a license - I'm doubtful we will be required to get a license to fly an rc aircraft. I'm probably wrong though.

There is no NRA or 2nd amendment for drones...

 

[Apparition]

There is no NRA or 2nd amendment for drones...

A license might be easier than a background check and showing a photo ID every time you go to Walmart to buy a firearm.

Need an amendment for keeping and bearing drones.

 

[F6Rider]

I am actually for licensing requirements to fly a Drone, maybe it will weed out some of the ones giving the hobby a bad name. Getting a license requires a bit of effort, like actually learning some rules, and passing a test, and possibly paying a fee. This is much more effort than some will put forth.

 

[KillerCut]

Like licensing worked out well for driving cars. More and more terrorist, horrible and idiot drivers on the road each day.
Licensing is only about keeping track of you and $$$$$

 

[ianwood]

Congress pretty much instructed the FAA to lay off amateur use. Which is why we're not all grounded waiting for the FAA to grant us a license. However, we clearly need some well thought out rules. Ones that allow local authorities some control while protecting civil and commercial aviation.

A progressive licensing program would be my suggestion. The base level would be a simple written test you could do online. Then, much like current pilots' licensing, you add ratings that may require a demonstration of proficiency e.g. urban flying, night flying, operating near people, etc.

Maybe that would keep city and state law makers from considering these sweeping and repressive "no fly" rules they want to implement.

 

[damitjim]

To license you would require thousands of new regulators and regulations, costing a boat load of money. No politician is going to propose spending more money, without a big tragedy to cover their political butt.

 

[Adam Kontras]

To license you would require thousands of new regulators and regulations, costing a boat load of money. No politician is going to propose spending more money, without a big tragedy to cover their political butt.

There will be a tragedy in the next 2 years. Just follow KillerCut. That's the type of flying that will kill someone. (Sorry to call you out, but flaunting your irresponsibility isn't gonna sit well with most of us)

 

[damitjim]

There will be a tragedy in the next 2 years. Just follow KillerCut. That's the type of flying that will kill someone. (Sorry to call you out, but flaunting your irresponsibility isn't gonna sit well with most of us)

It won't be big. Anything over 737 would chew up a Phantom and spit it out, barely noticed.

 

[Adam Kontras]

It won't be big. Anything over 737 would chew up a Phantom and spit it out, barely noticed.

Birds have taken down planes before. And not just that but actually hurting or maiming someone...

 

[Bugs]

To license you would require thousands of new regulators and regulations, costing a boat load of money. No politician is going to propose spending more money, without a big tragedy to cover their political butt.

Politicians live for huge inefficient programs.

My guess is it will be 5-10 years.

 

[SteveMann]

However, we clearly need some well thought out rules. Ones that allow local authorities some control while protecting civil and commercial aviation.

NO, NO, NO and in Spanish NO!
Dumbest idea yet.

Local authorities can already control where you can take off and land in their jurisdiction, but you DO NOT want the FAA to cede any "local" authority for your town to be able to regulate flight. That would certainly kill the hobby as practically every town would want to restrict all flight within their city limits.

HELL NO, YOU CAN'T! (I'm not swearing, I am quoting John Boener [cite]).

 

[ctp]

Why speculate when you can go read what the FAA has actually proposed - http://www.faa.gov/uas/nprm/

• Operators would be required to:
  • Pass an initial aeronautical knowledge test at an FAA-approved knowledge testing center.
  • Be vetted by the Transportation Security Administration.
  • Obtain an unmanned aircraft operator certificate with a small UAS rating (like existing pilot airman certificates, never expires).
  • Pass a recurrent aeronautical knowledge test every 24 months.
  • Be at least 17 years old.
  • Make available to the FAA, upon request, the small UAS for inspection or testing, and any associated documents/records required to be kept under the proposed rule.
  • Report an accident to the FAA within 10 days of any operation that results in injury or property damage.
  • Conduct a preflight inspection, to include specific aircraft and control station systems checks, to ensure the small UAS is safe for operation.

 

[SteveMann]

Birds have taken down planes before. And not just that but actually hurting or maiming someone...

Birds bringing down an airplane is a pretty rare occurrence.
Here is a Safety Analysis [link] that uses bird strike data as an analogue for small UAV threat potential.