I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never work"

[GoodnNuff]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

One thing we probably can all agree on is that the technology will be refined and ready to implement long before the FAA grants approval!
:lol:

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

And yes, that technology will help make drone deliveries more possible.... Yes... I'd use the heck out of that service if it made sense.

But it doesn't mean it's just around the corner.

Question... How long has the google car been driving around without a driver? 2 years? More? So.... I'm going down to the car dealership because they must be everywhere by now.... Because once you prove a concept its a short leap to mass production..../sarcasm

At the core of your rebuttals, I just don't get your general argument.

You say drone delivery will eventually happen, but then you say "it's not around the corner". Sounds like you're playing both sides of the coin, and you end up looking very ambiguous in making your point.

My general viewpoint is that the technical hurdles for commercial drone delivery will be knocked down quickly --- just like Google self driving cars --- but it's the regulatory side that is the big question mark. Government has always played the primary role of "Big Daddy" in keeping us safe, but they also recognize how much benefit self-driving cars and commercial drones can provide to our society. So the ball will be in their court on when we'll see either commercial drones and self-driving cars in widespread use in the US.

I don't understand how you're confused about my argument bro...

Eventually, and not around the corner are the SAME argument. How is that both sides of the coin????

I have been clearly debating ALL ALONG that there are multiple hurdles to overcome, but that eventually drone delivery will happen at some level..where your argument has seemed to be it's closer than I might think.

You have taken nearly every mentioned hurdle as an attack of the idea as a whole... And I don't get your frustration with the fact that almost all the the hurdles people have posited are real hurdles that need to be overcome in order for the service to go mainstream.

I agree with you that the long pole in this is government regulation... I think I said that in chapter 2 of this saga. My latest point was that you seem to think because we are pointing out hurdles...we'll be "angry" if someone finds a solution.

My point was (and I work in an innovation industry) that solving technical hurdles in one application doesn't mean it's ready for a commercial application tomorrow. First...second...maybe third step in that direction? Sure.

In the end... I think the only difference in our arguments is time. So pick a date... And I'll pick a date... And whoever is closest without going over wins $100.00

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

One thing we probably can all agree on is that the technology will be refined and ready to implement long before the FAA grants approval!
:lol:

Totally agree with this

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

My point was (and I work in an innovation industry) that solving technical hurdles in one application doesn't mean it's ready for a commercial application tomorrow. First...second...maybe third step in that direction? Sure.

In the end... I think the only difference in our arguments is time. So pick a date... And I'll pick a date... And whoever is closest without going over wins $100.00

LOL, ok now we're getting somewhere!

You're confusing a lot of people in here when you play both sides of the coin --- "well it will happen eventually" but "not anytime soon". Could it really be any more confusing?

I'm willing to lay down $100 of my cash to support the following statement: "Commercial drones will be operating in the U.S. by 2020"

There you have it, can't make it any more concise than that. I don't use any ambiguous phrases in that statement, such as "not economically feasible" or "not anytime soon". What I'm clearly saying is that commercial drones will be operating and making delivery of products in some capacity within the U.S. by the year 2020 which is only 5 years away. I don't know at what scale they will be used, but I am willing to bet that some retailer is using them to make delivery of products by that date.

Now it's up to you to see if you are willing to put your money where your mouth is and take my bet or not.

By the way, I also work in an innovation industry so I'm very well qualified on this matter.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

But if you want to argue the point that at the present time, it is just a novelty...or it has yet to prove it is economically feasible in its' present state...OK, I would agree.

I'm having a hard time fully understanding the core argument of the naysayers like MacCool and Buckaye?

They call commercial drones a "novelty" and "not economically feasible" and yet sort of say it will happen eventually. Doesnt this sound like somebody trying to play both sides of the coin and sitting on the fence?

I'd appreciate a more concise argument --- such as "Commercial drones will not be in widespread use in the U.S. until the year 2040" or something like that. Otherwise, I'm having a LOT of trouble understanding exactly what points they are trying to make.

We're having good fun in this debate, and it's stimulating the brain muscle while I'm stuck here in Ohio where it's too cold to fly, dammit. Let's keep it going!

We have given a lot of examples (based on business principals) on why it's a difficult business problem. Just another hurdle to overcome. Again because we are providing technical hurdles and business hurdles that HAVE to be overcome and say that those will take time to overcome.. You call us "naysayers" and use that as an argument.

Once again... And for the last time... My position is...and always has been...

Delivery drones face a number of major hurdles to make them become a mainstream reality those include:
Technical
Business and
Government hurdles

Because of this... I don't see drones being used as delivery mechanisms in more than a limited way for the next 10 years... But I think it's possible...wait for it....eventually.

What is wrong with that argument? How is that a wishy washy position?

 

[GoodnNuff]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

A bit off topic, but perhaps related?
I talked to a guy the other day who was flying a small quad with collective pitch! I was walking my dogs down in the valley along the river in an area with a lot of corporate farmland. I saw this guy flying this little quad doing some amazing maneuvers.
I approached him after he'd landed and was headed back to his car, and asked how he was able to fly like that. The guy showed me, each prop was like a heli's with collective pitch. It would enable quick reflexive movements coupled with obstacle avoidance. He said he'd cobbled his together from drone and copter bits, but thought that they were already available on the market. Anyone heard of these or seen them?

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Because of this... I don't see drones being used as delivery mechanisms in more than a limited way for the next 10 years... But I think it's possible...wait for it....eventually.

What is wrong with that argument? How is that a wishy washy position?

Because language is very important in any debate like this. It really comes down to interpreting basic words like "limited". What does that mean?

You might imply that "limited" use of a drone means Amazon is using them to deliver products in one test city. I may interpret "limited" as Amazon using them in only 10 or 20 test cities. Language is important in defining your viewpoint. Is 4K video standard in limited use right now? Some people may think that because no satellite or cable provider is using 4K video, but other people may say 4K is already in broad use because of so many flat screen TVs and computer monitors that have 4K displays and Netflix offering 4K content. So we need a lot more than just a simple term like "limited use" to support your argument.

This is just fundamentals of debate, bro.

 

[N017RW]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Warning: Off-Topic!

Here's one:

http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/stor ... _Fly_.html

Why not Google it?

Sorry, Topic Restored.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

My point was (and I work in an innovation industry) that solving technical hurdles in one application doesn't mean it's ready for a commercial application tomorrow. First...second...maybe third step in that direction? Sure.

In the end... I think the only difference in our arguments is time. So pick a date... And I'll pick a date... And whoever is closest without going over wins $100.00

LOL, ok now we're getting somewhere!

You're confusing a lot of people in here when you play both sides of the coin --- "well it will happen eventually" but "not anytime soon". Could it really be any more confusing?

I'm willing to lay down $100 of my cash to support the following statement: "Commercial drones will be operating in the U.S. by 2020"



There you have it, can't make it any more concise than that. I don't use any ambiguous phrases in that statement, such as "not economically feasible" or "not anytime soon". What I'm clearly saying is that commercial drones will be operating and making delivery of products in some capacity within the U.S. by the year 2020 which is only 5 years away. I don't know at what scale they will be used, but I am willing to bet that some retailer is using them to make delivery of products by that date.

Now it's up to you to see if you are willing to put your money where your mouth is and take my bet or not.

Your use of commercial drones is so general it is the definition of ambiguous...

In a limited format I wouldn't bet against you. But give me an example of what kind of commercial use you mean?

Do you mean:

A) a specific business is piloting some on demand delivery in a select city?
B) do you mean the average consumer in most cities can get something delivered by drone?
C) do you mean drones are being prolifically used by multiple businesses including smaller towns

If it's a... I agree with you
If it's b... I say 2025
If it's c... I'd say 2027

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Well I guess we have a fundamental disagreement about basic language being used in this thread. You say it took "years for home computers to be economically viable". I say history invalidates your argument. Hobbyists like Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak were assembling computers in 1973 out of ICs and memory chips and putting them inside a wood box. Hardly anybody knew what a computer was in 1974, outside of a handful of academics and NASA engineers. Only a few years later in 1976, they start Apple and produce a popular computer and the desktop PC industry suddenly became "economically viable". A 4 or 5 year time span is very quick development for any large scale penetration of a new product. Most offices and many homes had desktop PCs in them by the late 80s.

Dude! I said that it took "years for home computers to be economically viable". You said "4 or 5 year time span", then said there was large scale computer use in homes and offices "by the late 80s" which would be 10 years later, right? So, it took "years" for home computers to become economically viable, right? Where's the disconnect in your thinking here? How is it that you perceive we're not saying the same thing?

You didn't mention my other example...cell phones. Are you saying that cell phones were "economically viable" and "commercially feasible" within the first few years of hitting the market, 35 years ago? Is that what you're saying?

 

[GoodnNuff]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Warning: Off-Topic!

Here's one:

http://www.hobbyking.com/hobbyking/stor ... _Fly_.html

Why not Google it?

Sorry, Topic Restored.

Sorry - I meant "has anyone seen one fly?" I wasn't aware this technology existed, and the flight is so different from a typical quadcopter. Really amazing.

Back on topic (though I think all emerging drone technology can be related to future applications such as delivery services. Lightening fast reflexes will play a large part in obstacle avoidance, me thinks. Stationary objects are easy to avoid, another moving object coming at me at 40 mph will require split second movements).

 

[Meta4]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Back to the off-topic topic ..... To see what collective pitch quads can do ... just look up Curtis Youngblood

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

A) a specific business is piloting some on demand delivery in a select city?
B) do you mean the average consumer in most cities can get something delivered by drone?
C) do you mean drones are being prolifically used by multiple businesses including smaller towns

If it's a... I agree with you
If it's b... I say 2025
If it's c... I'd say 2027

OK, now we're making some solid headway about where each of us stands on this topic. Dates are a good metric.

We're in agreement that some city (likely San Fran or NYC) will be the first place to have drone delivery of a consumer product by 2020. However, I think Amazon will lead the charge and have drone delivery operating in many cities by 2022. It wont take long for them to get a test city to show proof of concept and then roll it out quickly to all their distribution centers in varying capacity.

However, the FAA and Congress could throw a monkey wrench in all this and really push back my projected dates. I've said all along the technical hurdles will fall quickly, but the regulatory side is the big unknown. I've worked with govt. agencies in my line of work so I have a lot of experience with how slow they operate.

 

[Khudson7]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I don't understand your confusion. It took years for home computers to be economically viable. It used to be the sole province of hobbyists who didn't care about the money, spent what was necessary to indulge their hobby. As the technology progressed and became relatively cheaper due to the economics of scale, computers became commonplace.

To this...I can speak, at least with some experience and authority.
[OK, back up on the soapbox]
I had a very successful career in a completely different field. One day I bought a Commodore 64. Anyone remember those? 64 megabytes of memory...God what in the world would anyone do with that MUCH memory, we thought back then.

Then I bought the first computer laptop. A Compaq(remember them? It weighed about 50 lbs(no exaggeration) and had a 6 inch black and white screen with a handle strap on it. I lugged it back and forth to work for couple of years, thinking how great technology was. (Along with developing some pretty good upper body strength)

Then at one point I quit my successful career and jumped head on into computer programming. Turned out to be more successful that I could have imagined back then. After 20 years of living a very comfortable lifestyle in that profession I have now retired. But I still do look toward to the future when it comes to new technologies like these and envy those that have the wherewithal to jump head on into these new technologies. I may be on the side lines now, but still do get very excited when discussing these subjects...(can you tell?)

OK I will stop reminiscing. Other than to say, anyone that is in a position to jump head first into some form of these technologies, sure seems to me at least, will have a very bright future ahead of them.
[soapbox over, and put away now, time for my medication(just kidding...sort of)]

But yes, it did take years, before it reached a point where I could make a living out of it.

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

A) a specific business is piloting some on demand delivery in a select city?
B) do you mean the average consumer in most cities can get something delivered by drone?
C) do you mean drones are being prolifically used by multiple businesses including smaller towns

If it's a... I agree with you
If it's b... I say 2025
If it's c... I'd say 2027

OK, now we're making some solid headway about where each of us stands on this topic. Dates are a good metric.

We're in agreement that some city (likely San Fran or NYC) will be the first place to have drone delivery of a consumer product by 2020. However, I think Amazon will lead the charge and have drone delivery operating in many cities by 2022. It wont take long for them to get a test city to show proof of concept and then roll it out quickly to all their distribution centers in varying capacity.

However, the FAA and Congress could throw a monkey wrench in all this and really push back my projected dates. I've said all along the technical hurdles will fall quickly, but the regulatory side is the big unknown. I've worked with govt. agencies in my line of work so I have a lot of experience with how slow they operate.

Yeah... Who's being wishy washy now lol so is our 100.00 on 2022 or not?... I mean.. You've gotta start saving up!

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Dude! I said that it took "years for home computers to be economically viable". You said "4 or 5 year time span", then said there was large scale computer use in homes and offices "by the late 80s" which would be 10 years later, right? So, it took "years" for home computers to become economically viable, right? Where's the disconnect in your thinking here? How is it that you perceive we're not saying the same thing?

Because your perception of "not economically feasible" is a very vague statement! You havent given any dates or percentage of market penetration, so your arguements are REALLY ambiguous.

Let me give you a test sample. Did you think 4K video was "economically feasible" in 2012 when it first started showing up at CES booths? I bet you would've said it wasnt back then, but here we are in 2015 and 4K sets are already very affordable and Netflix is already streaming in 4K on many movies. But do you consider that metric "economically feasible"?? I dunno. So you need to clearly define what you mean by "economically feasible" with hard numbers and dates.

This aint rocket science, bro. Just pointing out the fundamentals of good debating.

You didn't mention my other example...cell phones. Are you saying that cell phones were "economically viable" and "commercially feasible" within the first few years of hitting the market, 35 years ago? Is that what you're saying?

I never said cell phones were economically feasible within a few years of hitting the market, but that example points out the flaws of your argument. How fast or slow does something become "economically feasible" in your eyes? You're extremely vague when you dont give dollar amounts or public adoption percentages. I remember seeing the first cell phone in my area in a Radio Shack ad around 1987 and it was $1,200 and cost about $4.00 per minute for calls. Around 1993, my father bought a cell phone that cost him $500 and $1.00 per ninute. I call that "economically feasible" because he didnt have to take out a 2nd mortgage to buy it, but who really knows what your definition of "economically feasible" means? Is an iPhone 6 that costs $900 in January 2015 "economically feasible" ??

Start using hard numbers and dates to back up your arguments. Otherwise, you're about as vague as vague can be.

 

[MadMitch88]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Yeah... Who's being wishy washy now lol so is our 100.00 on 2022 or not?... I mean.. You've gotta start saving up!

LOL I spend $100 on a nice steak & lobster dinner these days. You sure you can man up on your bets with a six-figure guy like me, bro?

 

[Buckaye]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Yeah... Who's being wishy washy now lol so is our 100.00 on 2022 or not?... I mean.. You've gotta start saving up!

LOL I spend $100 on a nice steak & lobster dinner these days. You sure you can man up on your bets with a six-figure guy like me, bro?

Ok... I'm in. 2022 or sooner... You win

 

[MacCool]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

Dude! I said that it took "years for home computers to be economically viable". You said "4 or 5 year time span", then said there was large scale computer use in homes and offices "by the late 80s" which would be 10 years later, right? So, it took "years" for home computers to become economically viable, right? Where's the disconnect in your thinking here? How is it that you perceive we're not saying the same thing?

Because your perception of "not economically feasible" is a very vague statement! You havent given any dates or percentage of market penetration, so your arguements are REALLY ambiguous.

Let me give you a test sample. Did you think 4K video was "economically feasible" in 2012 when it first started showing up at CES booths? I bet you would've said it wasnt back then, but here we are in 2015 and 4K sets are already very affordable and Netflix is already streaming in 4K on many movies. But do you consider that metric "economically feasible"?? I dunno. So you need to clearly define what you mean by "economically feasible" with hard numbers and dates.

This aint rocket science, bro. Just pointing out the fundamentals of good debating.

You didn't mention my other example...cell phones. Are you saying that cell phones were "economically viable" and "commercially feasible" within the first few years of hitting the market, 35 years ago? Is that what you're saying?

I never said cell phones were economically feasible within a few years of hitting the market, but that example points out the flaws of your argument. How fast or slow does something become "economically feasible" in your eyes? You're extremely vague when you dont give dollar amounts or public adoption percentages. I remember seeing the first cell phone in my area in a Radio Shack ad around 1987 and it was $1,200 and cost about $4.00 per minute for calls. Around 1993, my father bought a cell phone that cost him $500 and $1.00 per ninute. I call that "economically feasible" because he didnt have to take out a 2nd mortgage to buy it, but who really knows what your definition of "economically feasible" means? Is an iPhone 6 that costs $900 in January 2015 "economically feasible" ??

Start using hard numbers and dates to back up your arguments. Otherwise, you're about as vague as vague can be.

There are no hard numbers. There is no way to predict time frames - too many variables. What I said was "not tomorrow". I can't help you to understand a pretty rudimentary concept.

Anyway, it's all just mental masturbation. You want a prediction with hard numbers and dates. It will happen when it happens and personally I don't really care when. I just know that it's going to be "years", just like you said that it took for the computer market, and just like you agreed that cell phone technology took.

 

[Koz]

Re: I laugh when I hear people say "Amazon Air will never wo

I get a chuckle when I hear this response. Why do people think it's so easy to knock a drone out of the sky, or that there will not be serious consequences to it?
These are not trivial criminal charges and upwards of a year in state prison could the reward for some punk who wants to steal an expensive drone.

Now it's my turn to chuckle. Since when does the criminal element care about laws and consequences?

It will be far easier to take down a drone and steal the cargo than it would be to shoplift in a store, carjack someone, or rob a bank.

Given the slightest opportunity, bad people do bad things. They don't think about consequences.